A Season of Gratitude: Reflecting on What Matters Most

As we approach Thanksgiving, we wanted to take a moment to express our heartfelt gratitude. In a season that reminds us of what truly matters, we’re thankful for the trust and confidence you’ve placed in us as your financial advising team. Our partnership is more than just numbers and strategies—it’s about helping you build the life you envision for yourself and your loved ones.

This time of year encourages us all to reflect on the goals we’ve reached and the milestones ahead. We look forward to continuing this journey with you, providing guidance and support to help you achieve your dreams.

Wishing you and your family a season filled with warmth, joy, and countless reasons to be thankful.

Jeff Wetta, RPS and Dustin Jackson, CFP® RICP®
Managing Partners

Your Market Update

Market strength continues nearing the election

We are now well into fall, however the volatility that we saw start in the summer continues. Equity markets remain positive year-to-date, despite this volatility though. As of October 24th, the S&P 500 was up 23.2%, the Nasdaq was up 20.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrials was up 12.3%.

Earnings – the third quarter has started

Earnings season is off to a good start with roughly 20% of companies in the S&P 500 reporting results for third quarter so far. Of these companies, 79% reported actual earnings per share (EPS) above estimates. Positive news, as this is above the 5-year average of 77% and the 10-year average of 74%.

Prior quarter aggregate earnings were up 10.8%, also above expectations, and expectations for the full year are projected to come in around 11%.

Other economic data

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September CPI report on October 10th. In it the BLS reported that headline CPI rose by 2.4%, which was an improvement from August’s 2.5%. Meanwhile, the month-over-month CPI excluding food and energy increased by 0.3%. This was higher than expected and dampened the market’s view on the pace of upcoming Fed rate cuts. However, inflation numbers have come down notably this year and the Fed rate cut cycle began with their 50 bps cut in September.

The BLS also reported unemployment numbers on October 4th. September brought 254,000 added jobs, which was 112,000 more than August. Wage growth was also higher than expected at 4.0% year-over-year, and the unemployment rate fell by a tenth of a percent to 4.1%. These numbers were stronger than the prior month and did not support a “hard landing” economic scenario, which was of some concern in the summer.

The presidential election is just a few weeks away, and one pressing item for the market is the looming expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. This tax cut bill runs through the end of 2025 and will need congressional action. We believe the market has not yet priced in notable tax increases, especially for capital gains. Additionally, the impact and extent of tariffs, if applicable, has not been priced in.

We believe the market can continue to perform well in a variety of election outcomes (including congressional and state) and remain positive with regards to equities. We also believe our portfolios are solidly diversified and well positioned for varying economic and election outcomes.

To Sum Up

Our view for 2024 continues to be a positive one. Our positive view is driven by two main factors; continued earnings growth and the beginning of a Fed rate cut cycle. We do believe, however, that equity returns going forward will likely trend moderately lower with periods of volatility.

We have incorporated the relatively full equity valuations into our analysis and exercise care as we build out our portfolios. Continued market volatility may also present some buying opportunities, so we’ll be on the lookout for quick pullbacks to take advantage of those. For fixed income investors, rates still remain higher than in prior years. Although, expected yields will likely fall as rates come down. Moving to higher-yielding alternatives will be prudent, in our view, as this trend continues.

The presidential election is just a few short weeks away and, while some may be concerned about its impact on the market, currently the emphasis is still on earnings, residual inflation, and the level of rate cuts. Recession fears have died down but may reappear as we round out the year.

Overall, our team continues to focus on a vast array of economic statistics, market events, and company earnings as we make our way through the final few of months of 2024.

Sevasti Balafas, CFA, CPWA®
CEO & Founder
GoalVest Advisory

Sources: JP Morgan Asset Management, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Morningstar, Factset, Slickcharts, Yahoo Finance, and Ycharts

Don’t Forget! A few reminders before the end of the year.

The end of the year is a busy time filled with family, celebration, and the holiday spirit. As we finish out 2024, please be aware of several important reminders and deadlines:

• 11/15/2024: Retirement account distribution requests
• 12/1/2024: Donor Advised Fund donations/grants
• 12/10/2024: New account applications

Holiday Office Building Closing

• Thursday, November 28th
• Friday, November 29th (will be available by phone from 8:30am – 12:00pm)
• Tuesday, December 24th (will be available by phone from 8:30am – 12:00pm)
• Wednesday, December 25th
• Wednesday, January 1st