| Markets Remain Positive
Despite a drawback in February, year-to-date equity markets remain positive. Month-to-date as of February 25th, the S&P 500 was down 1.3%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 1.7%, and the slower-growing companies of the Dow Jones Industrials were down 1.9%. Additionally, small-cap stocks were down 4.9% (represented by the Russell 2000 index), thus reversing last month’s enthusiasm for a broadening market rally.
Fixed income markets, on the other hand, were up in February. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond index was up 1.3% month-to-date and 1.7% year-to-date as of February 25th.
Volatility continued across most equity classes. The CBOE Volatility Index (the VIX) closed on the 25th at 19.4, which is still a bit below what is considered stable – 20.
January Economic Data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the January CPI report on February 12th. In the report, it was noted that headline CPI rose 3.0%, which was higher than December’s 2.9%. Additionally, the month-over-month increase was 0.5% as compared to the previous month’s 0.4%.
A Federal Reserve meeting on January 29th preceded the above-referenced CPI report. In this meeting the federal funds rate was held steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range, and the Fed continued to make relatively hawkish statements similar to those made in December. It’s our view that interest rates are likely to be sticky, but the downward direction will continue, with one further rate cut forecast for later this year.
In the BLS’s February labor statistics report, the BLS stated that January job growth came in strong with 143,000 new jobs and a lower unemployment rate of 4.0%. These numbers compared to December’s 256,000 new jobs led to projections for continued GDP growth and not as fuel to enflame existing inflation concerns.
Earnings – the Big Driver for 2025
Earnings for the fourth quarter 2024 were solid – up 16.9% year-over-year with 77% of companies reporting through February 25th. For 2025, projected first quarter earnings are 8.1% and second quarter earnings are 9.9%. It’s anticipated that full year earnings for 2025 will be closer to 12.7%. Interestingly, last month’s 2025 earnings growth estimate was revised down from 14.8%. Projected growth is still strong, though, and well above the 10-year average of 8.0% (from 2014 to 2023). This growth is an essential driver for continued market returns.
Tariffs and Inflation – Primary Market Concerns
Recently, tariffs and inflation have been causing some market uneasiness. Initially it was thought that the adoption of tariffs across all imports would require congressional approval. However, this is not the case. On Saturday, February 1st, a 25% tariff was imposed on Mexican and Canadian imports, and a 10% tariff was imposed on Chinese imports. The tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports were then delayed for 30 days after a strong adverse market reaction on Monday, February 3rd. Thus, there is hope that these tariffs will be further negotiated. The Chinese tariffs are still in effect, though, which has just added to the market’s worries about an uptick in inflation. Overall, the final tariff policies and their potential impact have added a level of market uncertainty.
In Summary
There are many factors to monitor as we continue forward into 2025, including corporate earnings, relatively-high equity valuations, tariffs, and inflation. Rest assured our team will analyze these and many other economic statistics in the coming months. We’re confident that our portfolios are solidly diversified and well-positioned for varying economic scenarios.
Sevasti Balafas, CFA, CPWA®
CEO & Founder
GoalVest Advisory
Sources: JP Morgan Asset Management, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Morningstar, Factset, Slickcharts, and Ycharts
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