As we approach the end of another year, we would like to take a moment to express our sincere gratitude for your trust and partnership. At Gentry Private Wealth, we are honored to support your financial goals, and we look forward to continuing our work together in the year ahead.

This holiday season, we wish you and your loved ones a time of peace, joy, and reflection. May the new year bring you continued success, prosperity, and happiness.

Thank you for choosing us as your trusted financial partner. We look forward to serving you in 2025 and beyond.

Warmest Wishes,

Jeff Wetta, RPS and Dustin Jackson, CFP® RICP®
Managing Partners

Your Market Update

Market strength continues

Equity markets remained positive year-to-date and the volatility that started late summer is becoming less pronounced, although still present, as we near the end of November. As of November 25^th, the S&P 500 was up 26.6%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq was up 24.0%, and the slower growing companies of the Dow Jones Industrials were up 19.2% year-to-date. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 was up 4.7%, the Nasdaq was up 4.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrials was up 6.2%.

The much anticipated election is over

It’s widespread news that the presidential election is finally over and Donald Trump emerged victorious. President Trump’s market-friendly views, including less regulation and lower taxes, helped drive positive markets on November 6^th – the S&P 500 was up 2.5%, the Nasdaq was up 1.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrials was up 3.6%. In the days since the election, market strength has continued, albeit at a slower pace, with some notable, speculative trading in cyber-currency areas.

October economic data

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the October CPI report on November 13^th. In it, they reported that headline CPI rose by 2.6%, which was worse than September’s 2.4%. The month-over-month CPI ex-food & energy number came in at 0.3%, however, which was the same as last month. This CPI report followed a Fed meeting on November 7^th, in which they cut the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75%. The market reaction to the CPI report was initially muted, and many investors remained hopeful for another 25 basis point cut in December. That said, while inflation numbers have come down notably this year and the Fed rate cut cycle is in motion, the outlook for steady cuts in 2025 is uncertain at this point.

The BLS also reported on employment on November 1^st. The publication stated October job growth was only 12,000 new jobs vs. the 223,000 new jobs in September and the 78,000 new jobs in August (both the September and August numbers were revised down). Wage growth also slowed from the prior month to 0.4% year-over-year versus the 4.0% reported in September, and the unemployment rate stayed flat at 4.1%. The market did not panic, though, over fears of a hard landing recession scenario as had happened in July. This may be because some of the weakness was attributed to the hurricanes and the Boeing strike.

Earnings – the third quarter was a success

Earnings season is mostly over, with over 95% of the S&P 500 companies having reported actual results for the third quarter. Of these companies, 75% reported actual earnings per share above estimates and aggregate growth was 5.8%. As previously mentioned, prior quarter aggregate earnings were up 10.8% which was well above expectations. Earnings growth expectations for the full year are projected to finish around 11%.

On the horizon – keep on the lookout for inflation

No sooner had the Fed declared victory over inflation than concerns resurfaced. Did the Fed start the rate cutting cycle too soon? Is the economy running too hot? And now a new worry – will President Trump’s tariffs increase inflation?

The answer to all three of these questions remains to be seen. A monetary “hawk” would likely not have cut rates by 50 basis points in July, however, the jobs report has shown some weakness both in jobs created and in wage growth, so the Fed would argue that they were trying to get ahead of a slowdown. The economy is strong as is evidenced by 2.8% GDP growth in third quarter, but given pockets of weakness and a stretched consumer, many would argue against the economy being too hot. As for tariffs, the impact on the economy is uncertain. Widespread adoption across all imports will likely involve congressional approval, making high-cost tariffs less probable. Tariffs and their use are topics we will be analyzing closely going forward. However, the market is not currently pricing them in as a negative.

To sum up

We believe the market can continue to perform well and that the new pro-business and pro-market administration will ultimately be favorable to company earnings. We are also confident that our portfolios are solidly-diversified and well-positioned for varying economic scenarios, including a higher-for-longer rate environment.

On another note, while the market volatility that started this summer has moderated, it’s our perspective that periods of volatility are a normal part of the market cycle. And although we do believe that equity returns going forward will continue to be attractive, we have incorporated the relatively-full equity valuations into our analysis and exercise care as we build out portfolios.

Regarding inflation, the Fed rate cut cycle is under way and, traditionally, the period during a rate cut cycle provides a tailwind to upcoming equity market returns. For fixed income investors, rates still remain higher than in prior years, although expected yields will come down as rates come down. Moving to higher-yielding alternatives will remain prudent as rates continue to fall in our view.

Rest assured our team continues to focus on the vast array of economic statistics, market events, and company earnings as we make our way through the end of 2024.

Sevasti Balafas, CFA, CPWA®
CEO & Founder
GoalVest Advisory

Sources: JP Morgan Asset Management, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Morningstar, Factset, Slickcharts, Yahoo Finance, and Ycharts

Don’t Forget! A few reminders before the end of the year.

The end of the year is a busy time filled with family, celebration, and the holiday spirit. As we finish out 2024, please be aware of several important reminders and deadlines:

• 12/1/2024: Donor Advised Fund donations/grants
• 12/10/2024: New account applications

Holiday Office Building Closing

• Tuesday, December 24th (will be available by phone from 8:30am – 12:00pm)
• Wednesday, December 25th
• Wednesday, January 1st

At Gentry Private Wealth, we’re proud to support our community through donations and volunteering. This year, our firm and team have contributed to several organizations to make a difference where it matters most.